Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
Order Audiobook - https://amzn.to/2I5yNI1 Narrated by Henry O. Arnold. Your remarkable life is happening right here, right now. You may not be able to see it - your life may seem predictable and your work insignificant until you look at your life as Frederick Buechner does. Based on a series of mostly unpublished lectures, Frederick Buechner reveals how to stop, look, and listen to your life. He reflects on how both art and faith teach us how to pay attention to the remarkableness right in front of us, to watch for the greatness in the ordinary, and to use our imaginations to see the greatness in others and love them well. As you learn to listen to your life and what God is doing in it, you will uncover the plot of your life's story and the sacred opportunity to connect with the divine in each moment.
The long-awaited sequel to Who Moved My Cheese?, the beloved 28-million-copy bestseller that became a worldwide sensation.
In his trademark storybook style that has won tens of millions of fans, Dr. Spencer Johnson once again uses a simple tale to reveal profound truths that can allow you to have less stress and enjoy more success and fulfillment, in your work and in your life.
In Who Moved My Cheese?, two mouse-sized characters named Hem and Haw were faced with unexpected change when the Cheese they loved suddenly disappeared. Haw learned how to deal with that change by setting off in search of New Cheese. But Hem remained stuck where he was. Now Out of the Maze reveals what Hem did next--and how his discoveries will help you unlock the riddle of whatever mazes you may be facing in your own life.
Follow Hem and his new friend, Hope, on their new journey, and you'll discover how to get more out of life by thinking outside the box. Or, in this case, outside the Maze.
Written for all ages and backgrounds, this story takes less than an hour to read, yet its insights can last for a lifetime.
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From a New York Times bestselling author and one of "the very best in today's regency romance" (Elizabeth Hoyt) comes the story of the unconventional Wentworth family in this charming new series with a Cinderella twist. A funny thing happened on the way to the gallows... One minute, London banker Quinn Wentworth is facing execution. The next, he's declared the long-lost heir to a dukedom. Quinn has fought his way up from the vilest slums, and now he's ready to use every dirty trick he knows to find the enemy who schemed against him. There was just one tiny problem... Jane Winston, the widowed, pregnant daughter of a meddlesome prison preacher, crosses paths with Quinn in jail. Believing his days are numbered, Quinn offers Jane marriage as a way to guarantee her independence and provide for her child. Neither thinks they'll actually have a future together. They were wrong. He's a wealthy gutter rat out for vengeance. She's a minister's daughter who must turn a marriage of desperation into a proper ducal union. Are they doomed from the start or destined for a happily-ever-after? Also includes the bonus novella Once Upon a Christmas Eve from New York Times bestselling author Elizabeth Hoyt! When his carriage wheel snaps in a snowstorm, Adam Rutledge, Viscount d'Arque, is forced to seek shelter at the home of the most maddening, infuriating, and utterly beguiling woman he's ever met. Available November 6, 2018 from Hachette Audio as a digital download, and in Print and Ebook from Forever. Pre-order here: https://libro.fm/audiobooks/9781549143014-my-one-and-only-duke Check out our other great titles and more at: http://www.hachetteaudio.com Follow us at: twitter.com/HachetteAudio www.tumblr.com/blog/hachetteaudio www.facebook.com/HachetteAudio
Faking It never felt so good in this red-hot new stand-alone by New York Times best-selling author K. Bromberg - available in audio first! Zane Phillips mistook me for his dog walker. It shouldn't surprise me that the man with a suit more expensive than my rent would assume that I was there to serve him. The positive? I put him in his place. The negative? I missed my job interview because of it. Now I find out he's a rich Australian entrepreneur, and he wants to make up for tanking my interview. Yes, he's impossibly hot - but he's also an arrogant jackass - so...no thanks. But after a little white lie I tell spirals out of control, I'm somehow offered the chance to play Zane's girlfriend to help promote his new dating website - and the best part? He can't say no because he'll get caught in his lie, too. Little did I know this would entail sharing a tour bus with him for the next few months. The fact that the bus has just one bed isn't the most ideal of circumstances, but this spokesperson gig might be the kick in the pants my career needs, so why not take a chance? Famous last words. Now I'm crisscrossing the country - and sharing that bed - with the one guy I can't stand. And even worse, my traitorous body is wondering at every turn what it's like to be down under the gorgeous Australian. But as the miles unfurl, so does our passion...and if I'm not careful, I might end up believing that fairy tales really do come true. Faking It by K. Bromberg on Audible: http://www.audible.com/pd?asin=B07GQ181R2&source_code=AUDORWS0830179LEH
Look out for Danzy Senna's latest book, New People, on sale in August!
Birdie and Cole are the daughters of a black father and a white mother, intellectuals and activists in the Civil Rights Movement in 1970s Boston. The sisters are so close that they speak their own language, yet Birdie, with her light skin and straight hair, is often mistaken for white, while Cole is dark enough to fit in with the other kids at school. Despite their differences, Cole is Birdie’s confidant, her protector, the mirror by which she understands herself. Then their parents’ marriage collapses. One night Birdie watches her father and his new girlfriend drive away with Cole. Soon Birdie and her mother are on the road as well, drifting across the country in search of a new home. But for Birdie, home will always be Cole. Haunted by the loss of her sister, she sets out a desperate search for the family that left her behind.
The extraordinary national bestseller that launched Danzy Senna’s literary career, Caucasia is a modern classic, at once a powerful coming of age story and a groundbreaking work on identity and race in America.
Highly acclaimed UCLA Women's gymnastics coach Valorie Kondos Field shares insights on how to use uniqueness and authenticity to achieve success. How did a professional ballerina become one of the winningest coaches in NCAA history? Valorie Kondos Field-or Miss Val as she's affectionately known-has never even tumbled, flipped, or ever played any type of organized sports and yet she has been able to craft a legendary coaching career through curiosity, creativity, intention to detail, and unwavering care for the overall well-being of her athletes. For Miss Val, it's not about the X's and O's, it's about choreographing your life and owning the choices you make. Miss Val has shaped her UCLA Gymnastics program as a life skills class and now she's sharing those lessons with you, whether you're an athlete, business leader, or simply someone who wants to own their destiny. Miss Val's philosophies are timeless. Her coaching style is unorthodox. LIFE IS SHORT, DON'T WAIT TO DANCE is a thought-provoking, fun journey through the personal stories and anecdotes of the 35-year career of a dancer/choreographer turned athletic coach. Included are Miss Val's favorite memories she experienced with her mentor, legendary coach John Wooden; as well as some of her most unforgettable stories of the Olympians and student-athletes she's coached. In 2014, Miss Val was diagnosed with breast cancer and explains how she made it one of the best years of her life-really! Miss Val reveals how her head coaching journey started off disastrously, spending years mimicking other top coaches while her team suffered because of her lack of authenticity. In time she realized being a gymnastics immigrant wasn't a detriment, it was a gift. When she embraced and honed her own uniqueness Miss Val led her Bruins to six NCAA Championships and became one of only two active coaches to ever be inducted into the UCLA Athletic Hall of Fame. In 2016 Miss Val was named Pac-12 "Gymnastics Coach of the Century." LIFE IS SHORT, DON'T WAIT TO DANCE is packed with brutally honest advice delivered in an inspirational tone Miss Val is known for. Did we mention she's a ballerina who's never played sports? Available October 2, 2018 from Hachette Audio as a digital download, and in Print and Ebook from Center Street. Pre-order here: https://libro.fm/audiobooks/9781549142031-life-is-short-don-t-wait-to-dance https://play.google.com/store/audiobooks/details/Valorie_Kondos_Field_Life_Is_Short_Don_t_Wait_to_D?id=AQAAAECMk07T0M Check out our other great titles and more at: http://www.hachetteaudio.com Follow us at: twitter.com/HachetteAudio www.tumblr.com/blog/hachetteaudio www.facebook.com/HachetteAudio
Narrated by the author, Andy Stanley. Once upon a time there existed a version of our faith worth living and dying for, something the world found irresistible. Men and women pursued it at the risk of persecution, job loss, and eviction from their homes, temples, and society. What if we actually followed their lead? Perhaps it would change how we read the Bible? Perhaps it would help us understand our own faith and what we believe? Perhaps we would change the world again? In Irresistible, pastor and author Andy Stanley shows how distortions of the gospel have left us with an anemic version of Christianity that undermines our credibility and our evangelistic effectiveness. He takes readers on a fascinating journey back in time to recover a faith so rich, so dynamic, so disruptive, that it could not be ignored, marginalized, or eradicated. Rather than working harder to make Christianity more interesting, we need to recover what once made faith in Jesus irresistible to the world.
New York Times-bestselling author Robin Cook takes on the cutting-edge world of gene-modification in this pulse-pounding new medical thriller.
When an unidentified, seemingly healthy young woman collapses suddenly on the New York City subway and dies upon reaching the hospital, her case is an eerie reminder for veteran medical examiner Jack Stapleton of the 1918 flu pandemic. Fearful of a repeat on the one hundredth anniversary of the nightmarish contagion, Jack autopsies the woman within hours of her demise and discovers some striking anomalies: first, that she has had a heart transplant, and second, that, against all odds, her DNA matches that of the transplanted heart.
Although the facts don't add up to influenza, Jack must race against the clock to identify the woman and determine what kind of virus could wreak such havoc--a task made more urgent when two other victims succumb to a similar rapid death. But nothing makes sense until his investigation leads him into the fascinating realm of CRISPR/CAS9, a gene-editing biotechnology that's captured the imagination of the medical community. . . and the attention of its most unethical members. Drawn into the dark underbelly of the organ transplant market, Jack will come face-to-face with a megalomaniacal businessman willing to risk human lives in order to conquer a lucrative new frontier in medicine--and if Jack's not careful, the next life lost might be his own.
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Performed by Tanya Eby. Susan Mallery, #1 New York Times bestselling author of the Fool’s Gold romances, proves there’s nowhere better than Happily Inc to rekindle first love. Silver Tesdal has a head for business and a mouth made for kissing, and banker Drew Lovato has his eye on both. But ever since he was dumb enough to let her go, she’s kept him at a distance. When the bank turns her down for a loan, Drew sees a double opportunity—he can finance her brilliant, unique idea to rock Happily Inc’s wedding industry and win back her trust. Despite her reputation, Silver’s not as tough as she seems. Losing Drew nearly destroyed her. Still, his kisses are as tempting as his offer to invest in her business. If she can’t quite get over him, maybe she should get under him and knock him out of her system once and for all. But her best laid plans begin to unravel as Silver finds herself falling even harder than when they were high school sweethearts. Which means that she’ll have to come clean about the secret she’s been hiding from him for years—and risk losing him forever.
The world's oil supply is vanishing, the stock market is plummeting, and the key to saving the future seems to a baffling historical mystery. Can the NUMA crew crack it in time? Sea of Greed is the suspenseful new NUMA Files novels from the #1 New York Times-bestselling grand master of adventure.
After an explosion in the Gulf of Mexico destroys three oil rigs trying to revive a dying field, Kurt Austin and the NUMA Special Projects Team are tapped by the President of the United States to find out what's gone wrong. The trail leads them to a brilliant billionaire in the alternative energy field. Her goal is the end of the oil age; her company has spent billions developing the worlds' most advanced fuel-cell systems. But is she an environmental hero...or a rogue genetic engineer?
The NUMA crew discovers that the oil fields are infected with a bacteria that is consuming the oil before it can be pumped out of the earth--a bacteria originally lost decades ago when two submarines vanished in the Mediterranean.
With hired killers on his trail, can Kurt Austin locate a submarine that's remained hidden for more than fifty years? And even if he can, can the biological terror that's been unleashed be stopped?
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Bella Tyson is a famous 40-something crime writer suffering from writer’s block ever since a bitter divorce two years before. When a fan offers her the use of an apartment in Venice, Bella jumps at it, hoping a change of scene will have her writing again. Once there, she soon meets Will, a charming Englishman, who shows her around the city. Enchanted by both Will and her new surroundings, Bella decides to write a supernatural murder mystery and begins researching local legends and the city’s more sinister side, including an illicit visit to the island of Poveglia, spooky former home of Venice’s asylum. Soon Bella uncovers more than she has bargained for and finds herself enmeshed in a series of gruesome real-life murders that uncannily mirror the legends she is researching. As she and Will join forces to investigate, real life and local lore merge disconcertingly - for nothing in Venice turns out to be what seems, including Will.... Dead in Venice by Fiona Leitch on Audible: http://www.audible.co.uk/pd?asin=B07FPT8SZD&source_code=ASUOR22207261800A7
Jock Row by Sara Ney on Audible:
James Frey goes behind the scenes on his audiobook KATERINA.
He's the hottest handyman on TV, but he only wants his best friend. Kit Carlyle isn’t just some woman. Beautiful? Yep. Seductive? Damn straight. She’s also my best friend and my coworker. But, hell, I’m a guy with a pulse. Every once in a while, I look at her and think filthy things. But when her cousin dies and leaves her with a long-as-hell and sexy bucket list, Kit turns to me for a helping hand. What can I say? I’m a sucker for a woman in need. Besides, I’m not about to let another man steal away my girl, occupy her bed, or fill my shoes. But as the stakes get higher and the items become hotter, I’ll have to face the toughest challenge of all: admitting I want more than Kit’s friendship. I want to make her mine. Nailed Down is a friends-to-lovers romance with heat, heart, and one hot alpha! Nailed Down by Chelle Bliss and Eden Butler on Audible: http://www.audible.com/pd?asin=B07FM67DL6&source_code=AUDOR2220724189O65
“I have sensed a disturbance in the Force.” Ominous words under any circumstances, but all the more so when uttered by Emperor Palpatine. On Batuu, at the edges of the Unknown Regions, a threat to the Empire is taking root—its existence little more than a glimmer, its consequences as yet unknowable. But it is troubling enough to the Imperial leader to warrant investigation by his most powerful agents: ruthless enforcer Lord Darth Vader and brilliant strategist Grand Admiral Thrawn. Fierce rivals for the emperor’s favor, and outspoken adversaries on Imperial affairs—including the Death Star project—the formidable pair seem unlikely partners for such a crucial mission. But the Emperor knows it’s not the first time Vader and Thrawn have joined forces. And there’s more behind his royal command than either man suspects. In what seems like a lifetime ago, General Anakin Skywalker of the Galactic Republic, and Commander Mitth’raw’nuruodo, officer of the Chiss Ascendancy, crossed paths for the first time. One on a desperate personal quest, the other with motives unknown . . . and undisclosed. But facing a gauntlet of dangers on a far-flung world, they forged an uneasy alliance—neither remotely aware of what their futures held in store. Now, thrust together once more, they find themselves bound again for the planet where they once fought side by side. There they will be doubly challenged—by a test of their allegiance to the Empire . . . and an enemy that threatens even their combined might.
Enjoy this Sit and Listen devotional from Beth Moore's Get Out of that Pit audiobook. To listen to a new devotional everyday, enable the Devotionals Alexa skill on your Alexa-enabled device - bit.ly/Devotionals-Alexa. Beth’s journey out of the pit has been heart-rending. But from this and the poetic expressions of Psalm 40 has come the reward: a new song for her soul, given by her Savior and offered to you in Get Out of That Pit. This is Beth’s most stirring message yet of the sheer hope, utter deliverance, and complete and glorious freedom of God. From her first breath of fresh air beyond the pit, it has never been enough for Beth Moore to be free. This best-selling author and Bible teacher who has opened the riches of Scripture to millions longs for you to be free as well—to know the Love and Presence that are better than life and the power of God’s Word that defies all darkness. Beth’s journey out of the pit has been heart-rending. But from this and the poetic expressions of Psalm 40 has come the reward: a new song for her soul, given by her Savior and offered to you in Get Out of That Pit—friend to friend. This is Beth’s most stirring message yet of the sheer hope, utter deliverance, and complete and glorious freedom of God: I waited patiently for the Lord He turned to me and heard my cry He lifted me out of the slimy pit He set my feet on a rock He put a new song in my mouth It is a story, a song—a salvation—that you can know too.
Listen to an excerpt of Chris Dancy's DON'T UNPLUG audiobook, read by the author. In Don't Unplug, Chris Dancy, the world's most connected person, inspires listeners with practical advice to live a happier and healthier life using technology. In 2002, Chris Dancy was overweight, unemployed, and addicted to technology. He chain-smoked cigarettes, popped pills, and was angry and depressed. But when he discovered that his mother kept a record of almost every detail of his childhood, an idea began to form. Could knowing the status of every aspect of his body and how his lifestyle affected his health help him learn to take care of himself? By harnessing the story of his life, could he learn to harness his own bad habits? With a little tech know-how combined with a healthy dose of reality, every app, sensor, and data point in Dancy's life was turned upside down and examined. What Marie Kondo did for closets, Dancy did to his phone and life - and now he's sharing what he knows. That knowledge includes the fact that changing the color of his credit card helps him to use it less often and that nostalgia is a trigger for gratitude for him. A modern-day story of rebirth and redemption, Chris' wisdom and insight will tell listeners how to improve their lives by paying attention to the relationship between how we move, what we eat, who we spend time with, and how it all makes us feel. But Chris has done all the hard work: Don't Unplug shows us how we, too, can transform our lives.
‘Everett cleverly maintains the suspense until the final denouement … a compelling and easily readable tale of our times’ – Daily Mail Meet the new neighbours. Whose side are you on? Have you met the People at Number 9? Sara and Neil have new neighbours in their street. Glamorous and chaotic, Gav and Lou make Sara’s life seem dull. As the two couples become friends, sharing suppers, red wine and childcare, it seems a perfect couples-match. But the more Sara sees of Gav and Lou, the more she longs to change her own life. But those changes will come at a price.
Get it at Big Finish - https://www.bigfinish.com/podcasts/v/2018-09-16-daleks-and-big-finish-music Nick and Benji can’t wait to welcome you into the Big Finish world of audiobooks and audio drama. Guest stars: Big Finish composers Jamie Robertson and Howard Carter. Drama Tease: The Dalek Occupation of Winter (an adventure for the First Doctor). Latest Releases - Doctor Who: The Dispossessed, Doctor Who: The Dalek Occupation of Winter. Big Finish News - Star Cops Mother Earth Part 2 trailer, Big Finish Day news and the Podcast Download Button. Listeners’ Emails - all the latest and best emails from our lovely listeners, plus our ‘ACE!!!’ competition wrapped up and an exciting new competition unwrapped. To join in, just email us at [email protected] Guest Stars - Big Finish composers Jamie Robertson and Howard Carter chat with Nick about their music, with many musical interludes to delight your ear things. Randomoid Selectortron - where it stops, nobody knows… but whatever gem from the Big Finish archive it selects, Benji and Nick will have something to say about it — not least that you’ll get 25% off if you want to buy it here. The code is BUCKUP. Drama Tease - the first fifteen minutes of Doctor Who: The Early Adventures - The Dalek Occupation of Winter by David K. Barnes, starring Maureen O’Brien and Peter Purves with some bloke called Nick doing them there Daleks. This podcast is released on Sunday 16th September 2018. You can download or stream it now simply by pressing one of those handy little buttons below this text. 'You will obey and press immediately,' advises the Dalek Supreme. Check out other editions of the Big Finish Podcast in the range here, enabling you to put them into your account and listen via the Big Finish Listening app on Apple and Android devices!